✅
Proven on 85 real DK slates: in your soft home league these builds win
~22% of the time (vs 8.3% random) =
+160% ROI.
Cash → don't stack (54% cash). Big GPP → leverage (top-1% finishes 3.5% vs
0.0% for naive).
See the backtest →
Your 3 contest types — how to play each
Different payout = different build. Don't use one lineup for all three. Numbers below are backtest-proven.
Soft home league (WTA)
CEILING · +160% ROI proven
2nd = $0, so floor is useless. Run a light game stack (QB+2+bring-back) but the field is soft → just be correct, don't over-leverage. Backtest: ~22% win vs 8.3% baseline.
$1–$20 large GPP
CEILING + leverage
Top-heavy, huge field. Stack + bring-back + leverage mandatory. Naive chalk never wins (0.0% top-1%); leverage hits 3.5%. Low-owned skill in high-total games.
$1–$20 double-up / cash
FLOOR · don't stack
Just beat the median. No stack (naked QB ok), max projection, ignore ownership, play chalk. Backtest: naive cashes 54%; stacking hurts (52%). Consistency > upside.
Correlation map
5-yr coefficients. Green = stack · red = never together.
| QB ↔ opposing QB | .58 | pick high-total games |
| QB ↔ own WR1 | .53 | THE stack |
| QB ↔ own TE1 | .47 | lower-owned leverage |
| QB ↔ own RB1 | .42 | receiving backs |
| QB ↔ opp WR1 | .37 | the bring-back |
| RB ↔ own WR | neg | vulture TDs — avoid |
| RB1 ↔ RB2 same team | neg | never both |
| RB ↔ own DST | .12 | only if 4+ pt fav |
The 3x1 stack (GPP + winner-take-all)
QBWR1/WR2 (same tm)2nd catcher (same tm)1 bring-back (opp)
Milly Maker winners: 10 of 14 had a QB stack, 8 of 14 QB-WR. Bring-back non-negotiable in tournaments.
Weekly game predictions · winner ledger 0-0 (season starts Week 1)
Market-anchored (Kalshi). Backtested ~65% SU on 2025. Score/total feed the DFS implied totals. ATS/totals are coin-flips (line is sharp) — this is data collection + game environment, not a side bet.
CAR@BUFBUF90%BUF 31-14o/u 44
DET@CINCIN71%CIN 26-18o/u 44
TB@NYJNYJ70%NYJ 26-19o/u 44
TEN@SFTEN67%TEN 25-19o/u 44
CLE@CHICLE67%CLE 25-19o/u 44
MIN@NYGNYG66%NYG 25-19o/u 44
DEN@ATLDEN63%DEN 25-20o/u 44
PHI@BALPHI63%PHI 25-20o/u 44
MIA@WSHMIA62%MIA 24-20o/u 44
GB@PITGB59%GB 24-21o/u 44
IND@NEIND59%IND 24-21o/u 44
DAL@SEASEA59%SEA 24-21o/u 44
JAX@NONO57%NO 24-21o/u 44
ARI@LVLV55%LV 23-21o/u 44
LAR@KCKC55%KC 23-21o/u 44
CAR@ARICAR52%CAR 23-22o/u 44
LAC@HOULAC51%LAC 22-22o/u 44
Showdown (primetime single-game)
TNF / SNF / MNF · 1 CPT (1.5x pts & salary) + 5 FLEX · $50K · one game.
Core build
Onslaught + bring-back
It's ONE game — correlation is everything. QB + 2 catchers one side + 1-2 bring-backs. Captain is the leverage lever.
Captain pivots
Where you win/lose
CHALK (top proj) · QB-CPT (primetime ceiling) · LEVERAGE (mid-salary WR/TE to differentiate). Optimizer builds all 3.
Don't
6-from-one-side
Never roster all 6 from one team — you need points from both. Avoid pure-kicker/DST-heavy builds in GPP showdowns.
Backtest note: the "primetime favorites don't cover" theory = not a profitable bet (dogs 51.7% over 5 yrs, n=261, below the 52.4% break-even — noise, not rigged). BUT primetime games do stay close → good pass volume → strong Showdown ceiling environments.
Week 1 stack board
Ranked by team strength + game competitiveness. Live Vegas O/U totals override at lock. Top-5 show QB + top catchers (nflverse rosters).
1
LAR @ KC
PRIME
+2.50
KC 55%
LAR Matthew Stafford + Puka Nacua (WR), Davante Adams (WR), Colby Parkinson (TE)
KC Patrick Mahomes + Rashee Rice (WR), Xavier Worthy (WR), Travis Kelce (TE)
2
JAX @ NO
PRIME
+1.05
NO 56%
JAX Trevor Lawrence + Parker Washington (WR), Brian Thomas Jr. (WR), Jakobi Meyers (WR)
NO Tyler Shough + Chris Olave (WR), Jordyn Tyson (WR), Juwan Johnson (TE)
3
DAL @ SEA
PRIME
+1.05
SEA 59%
DAL Dak Prescott + CeeDee Lamb (WR), George Pickens (WR), Jake Ferguson (TE)
SEA Sam Darnold + Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR), Rashid Shaheed (WR), AJ Barner (TE)
4
IND @ NE
PRIME
+0.94
IND 59%
IND Daniel Jones + Tyler Warren (TE), Alec Pierce (WR), Josh Downs (WR)
NE Drake Maye + A.J. Brown (WR), Romeo Doubs (WR), Hunter Henry (TE)
5
PHI @ BAL
GOOD
+0.66
PHI 63%
PHI Jalen Hurts + DeVonta Smith (WR), Makai Lemon (WR), Dallas Goedert (TE)
BAL Lamar Jackson + Zay Flowers (WR), Mark Andrews (TE), Elijah Sarratt (WR)
6
GB @ PIT
GOOD
+0.58
GB 59%
7
LAC @ HOU
GOOD
+0.50
LAC 51%
8
DEN @ ATL
GOOD
+0.41
DEN 63%
9
DET @ CIN
GOOD
+0.15
CIN 71%
10
MIN @ NYG
GOOD
+0.07
NYG 66%
11
CAR @ ARI
LEAN
-0.06
CAR 52%
12
CLE @ CHI
LEAN
-0.43
CLE 67%
13
ARI @ LV
LEAN
-0.45
LV 55%
14
TEN @ SF
LEAN
-0.71
TEN 67%
15
TB @ NYJ
AVOID
-1.91
NYJ 70%
16
CAR @ BUF
AVOID
-2.10
BUF 90%
17
MIA @ WSH
AVOID
-2.24
MIA 62%