✅
Proven on 85 real DK slates: in your soft home league these builds win
~22% of the time (vs 8.3% random) =
+160% ROI.
Cash → don't stack (54% cash). Big GPP → leverage (top-1% finishes 3.5% vs
0.0% for naive).
See the backtest →
Your 3 contest types — how to play each
Different payout = different build. Don't use one lineup for all three. Numbers below are backtest-proven.
Soft home league (WTA)
CEILING · +160% ROI proven
2nd = $0, so floor is useless. Run a light game stack (QB+2+bring-back) but the field is soft → just be correct, don't over-leverage. Backtest: ~22% win vs 8.3% baseline.
$1–$20 large GPP
CEILING + leverage
Top-heavy, huge field. Stack + bring-back + leverage mandatory. Naive chalk never wins (0.0% top-1%); leverage hits 3.5%. Low-owned skill in high-total games.
$1–$20 double-up / cash
FLOOR · don't stack
Just beat the median. No stack (naked QB ok), max projection, ignore ownership, play chalk. Backtest: naive cashes 54%; stacking hurts (52%). Consistency > upside.
Correlation map
5-yr coefficients. Green = stack · red = never together.
| QB ↔ opposing QB | .58 | pick high-total games |
| QB ↔ own WR1 | .53 | THE stack |
| QB ↔ own TE1 | .47 | lower-owned leverage |
| QB ↔ own RB1 | .42 | receiving backs |
| QB ↔ opp WR1 | .37 | the bring-back |
| RB ↔ own WR | neg | vulture TDs — avoid |
| RB1 ↔ RB2 same team | neg | never both |
| RB ↔ own DST | .12 | only if 4+ pt fav |
The 3x1 stack (GPP + winner-take-all)
QBWR1/WR2 (same tm)2nd catcher (same tm)1 bring-back (opp)
Milly Maker winners: 10 of 14 had a QB stack, 8 of 14 QB-WR. Bring-back non-negotiable in tournaments.
Weekly game predictions · winner ledger 0-0 (season starts Week 1)
Market-anchored (Kalshi). Backtested ~65% SU on 2025. Score/total feed the DFS implied totals. ATS/totals are coin-flips (line is sharp) — this is data collection + game environment, not a side bet.
ARI@LACLAC82%LAC 28-16o/u 44
CLE@JAXJAX76%JAX 27-18o/u 44
NO@DETDET74%DET 27-18o/u 44
WSH@PHIPHI65%PHI 25-20o/u 44
NE@SEASEA64%SEA 25-20o/u 44
TB@CINCIN62%CIN 24-20o/u 44
BAL@INDBAL62%BAL 24-20o/u 44
MIA@LVLV60%LV 24-20o/u 44
SF@LARLAR59%LAR 24-21o/u 44
DAL@NYGDAL58%DAL 24-21o/u 44
DEN@KCKC57%KC 23-21o/u 44
NYJ@TENTEN57%TEN 23-21o/u 44
CHI@CARCHI56%CHI 23-21o/u 44
ATL@PITPIT55%PIT 23-21o/u 44
GB@MINGB52%GB 23-22o/u 44
BUF@HOUBUF51%BUF 22-22o/u 44
Showdown (primetime single-game)
TNF / SNF / MNF · 1 CPT (1.5x pts & salary) + 5 FLEX · $50K · one game.
Core build
Onslaught + bring-back
It's ONE game — correlation is everything. QB + 2 catchers one side + 1-2 bring-backs. Captain is the leverage lever.
Captain pivots
Where you win/lose
CHALK (top proj) · QB-CPT (primetime ceiling) · LEVERAGE (mid-salary WR/TE to differentiate). Optimizer builds all 3.
Don't
6-from-one-side
Never roster all 6 from one team — you need points from both. Avoid pure-kicker/DST-heavy builds in GPP showdowns.
Backtest note: the "primetime favorites don't cover" theory = not a profitable bet (dogs 51.7% over 5 yrs, n=261, below the 52.4% break-even — noise, not rigged). BUT primetime games do stay close → good pass volume → strong Showdown ceiling environments.
Week 1 stack board
Ranked by team strength + game competitiveness. Live Vegas O/U totals override at lock. Top-5 show QB + top catchers (nflverse rosters).
1
BUF @ HOU
PRIME
+2.23
BUF 51%
BUF Josh Allen + DJ Moore (WR), Dalton Kincaid (TE), Khalil Shakir (WR)
HOU C.J. Stroud + Nico Collins (WR), Jayden Higgins (WR), Dalton Schultz (TE)
2
SF @ LAR
PRIME
+1.75
LAR 59%
SF Brock Purdy + Mike Evans (WR), George Kittle (TE), Ricky Pearsall (WR)
LAR Matthew Stafford + Puka Nacua (WR), Davante Adams (WR), Colby Parkinson (TE)
3
GB @ MIN
PRIME
+1.70
GB 52%
GB Jordan Love + Christian Watson (WR), Tucker Kraft (TE), Jayden Reed (WR)
MIN Kyler Murray + Justin Jefferson (WR), Jordan Addison (WR), Jauan Jennings (WR)
4
DEN @ KC
PRIME
+1.45
KC 56%
DEN Bo Nix + Jaylen Waddle (WR), Courtland Sutton (WR), Evan Engram (TE)
KC Patrick Mahomes + Rashee Rice (WR), Xavier Worthy (WR), Travis Kelce (TE)
5
NE @ SEA
PRIME
+0.88
SEA 64%
NE Drake Maye + A.J. Brown (WR), Romeo Doubs (WR), Hunter Henry (TE)
SEA Sam Darnold + Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR), Rashid Shaheed (WR), AJ Barner (TE)
6
BAL @ IND
GOOD
+0.57
BAL 62%
7
DAL @ NYG
GOOD
+0.55
DAL 57%
8
CHI @ CAR
GOOD
+0.44
CHI 56%
9
TB @ CIN
GOOD
+0.30
CIN 62%
10
ATL @ PIT
GOOD
+0.18
PIT 55%
11
WSH @ PHI
LEAN
-0.12
PHI 65%
12
NO @ DET
AVOID
-1.02
DET 75%
13
NYJ @ TEN
AVOID
-1.13
TEN 56%
14
MIA @ LV
AVOID
-1.98
LV 60%
15
CLE @ JAX
AVOID
-2.40
JAX 76%
16
ARI @ LAC
AVOID
-3.38
LAC 82%