NFL 2026 · Edge HQ

Where our edge actually is — and where it isn't

Five seasons of backtests, the honest version: we can't beat the market on sides or totals, but our DFS construction is provably +EV — biggest in soft home leagues.
🏈 DFS HQ — playbook & stacks 📊 Research & backtests
Soft home league (proven)
+160% ROI
~22% win vs 8.3% baseline
2026 title favorite
LA Rams
25% · market-implied
Best projected record
LAR 12-5
2026 Kalshi futures
MVP favorites
Allen / Herbert
11% each

✅ What we've proven (5-season backtests)

Tested on real data, the same way we killed our bad ideas. Tap any card for the numbers.
DFS construction edge
+160% ROI
Soft 12-man winner-take-all: our lineups win ~22% vs the 8.3% random baseline (85 real DK slates). Cash = don't stack; big GPP = leverage (top-1% 3.5% vs 0% naive).
See the backtest →
Markets are efficient on sides
49% ATS · 50% O/U
Over 1,359 games (2021-25), no model beats the closing line ATS or on totals. So we don't bet sides/totals — the edge isn't there.
See the backtest →
Warm model — no cold start
+17 pts in Sept
Carrying ratings across seasons fixes the cold-start tax: Weeks 1-4 win-rate 68.8% warm vs 51.6% cold. 2025 winners 63.6% straight-up.
See the backtest →

2026 market-implied projections

Power tiers

Ranked by market-implied projected wins · updated 2026-06-20.
S
Contender
LAR 12.3SEA 11.6BAL 11.6
A
Playoff
DET 11.2BUF 11.1SF 10.8PHI 10.7LAC 10.7DEN 10.7NE 10.6GB 10.6CIN 10.6KC 10.5HOU 10.5
B
Bubble
DAL 10.1CHI 10.0JAX 9.7MIN 9.5
C
Longshot
TB 8.8NO 8.7NYG 8.6WSH 8.5PIT 8.5IND 8.5ATL 7.9CAR 7.6
D
Rebuild
TEN 6.9LV 6.8CLE 6.2NYJ 5.9MIA 4.8ARI 4.7

Conference championship odds

Implied probability to reach the Super Bowl.

AFC

BUF15%
KC14%
BAL13%
LAC12%

NFC

LAR25%
SEA11%
PHI10%
DET9%

Projected playoff field

Top 4 = division winners · seeds 5–7 = wild cards.

AFC

1BAL 11.6North
2BUF 11.1East
3DEN 10.7West
4HOU 10.5South
5LAC 10.7WC
6NE 10.6WC
7CIN 10.6WC

NFC

1LAR 12.3West
2DET 11.2North
3PHI 10.7East
4TB 8.8South
5SEA 11.6WC
6SF 10.8WC
7GB 10.6WC

Award races

 
MVP
Josh Allen11%
Justin Herbert11%
Joe Burrow10%
Off. POY
Jahmyr Gibbs13%
Bijan Robinson12%
Puka Nacua9%
Def. POY
Myles Garrett27%
Will Anderson Jr.13%
Aidan Hutchinson11%
Off. ROY
Fernando Mendoza25%
Jeremiyah Love22%
Carnell Tate17%

Projected stat leaders

 
Pass yards
Jordan Love38%
Drake Maye38%
Joe Burrow37%
Pass TDs
Baker Mayfield37%
Jordan Love32%
Jared Goff31%
Rush yards
James Cook III33%
Jonathan Taylor19%
Derrick Henry18%
Rush TDs
Saquon Barkley44%
Josh Allen41%
Derrick Henry40%
Rec yards
Ja'Marr Chase47%
Marvin Harrison Jr.35%
George Pickens35%
Rec TDs
Ja'Marr Chase50%
Courtland Sutton17%
Rome Odunze17%
Sacks
Myles Garrett32%
Will Anderson Jr.20%
Maxx Crosby14%
Interceptions
Kerby Joseph11%
Kyle Hamilton9%
Xavier Watts8%
Projections from live Kalshi prediction markets (2026-06-20). Backtests on real nflverse + DraftKings data.
Edge is in DFS construction, not side-betting. For entertainment / informational use — lines move, verify before acting.