NFL 2026 · Edge HQ

Where our edge actually is — and where it isn't

Five seasons of backtests, the honest version: we can't beat the market on sides or totals, but our DFS construction is provably +EV — biggest in soft home leagues.
🏈 DFS HQ — playbook & stacks 📊 Research & backtests
Soft home league (proven)
+160% ROI
~22% win vs 8.3% baseline
2026 title favorite
San Francisco
22% · market-implied
Best projected record
SF 13-4
2026 Kalshi futures
MVP favorites
Purdy / Allen
27% each

✅ What we've proven (5-season backtests)

Tested on real data, the same way we killed our bad ideas. Tap any card for the numbers.
DFS construction edge
+160% ROI
Soft 12-man winner-take-all: our lineups win ~22% vs the 8.3% random baseline (85 real DK slates). Cash = don't stack; big GPP = leverage (top-1% 3.5% vs 0% naive).
See the backtest →
Markets are efficient on sides
49% ATS · 50% O/U
Over 1,359 games (2021-25), no model beats the closing line ATS or on totals. So we don't bet sides/totals — the edge isn't there.
See the backtest →
Warm model — no cold start
+17 pts in Sept
Carrying ratings across seasons fixes the cold-start tax: Weeks 1-4 win-rate 68.8% warm vs 51.6% cold. 2025 winners 63.6% straight-up.
See the backtest →

2026 market-implied projections

Power tiers

Ranked by market-implied projected wins · updated 2026-10-17.
S
Contender
SF 13.3BUF 12.5KC 12.4BAL 12.3JAX 12.2MIN 11.7
A
Playoff
DEN 11.2LAR 11.2CIN 11.0NE 11.0DET 10.8SEA 10.6
B
Bubble
CHI 10.2GB 9.5DAL 9.4PIT 9.0
C
Longshot
HOU 8.8CAR 8.7IND 8.6LV 8.5ATL 8.3PHI 8.1CLE 7.9NYG 7.8
D
Rebuild
NO 7.2NYJ 6.9TB 6.7WSH 6.7LAC 6.0ARI 4.7TEN 3.8MIA 2.9

Conference championship odds

Implied probability to reach the Super Bowl.

AFC

BUF20%
KC18%
BAL16%
JAX15%

NFC

SF22%
LAR18%
SEA13%
MIN9%

Projected playoff field

Top 4 = division winners · seeds 5–7 = wild cards.

AFC

1BUF 12.5East
2KC 12.4West
3BAL 12.3North
4JAX 12.2South
5DEN 11.2WC
6NE 11.0WC
7CIN 11.0WC

NFC

1SF 13.3West
2MIN 11.7North
3DAL 9.4East
4CAR 8.7South
5LAR 11.2WC
6DET 10.8WC
7SEA 10.6WC

Award races

 
MVP
Brock Purdy27%
Josh Allen26%
Patrick Mahomes11%
Off. POY
Jahmyr Gibbs25%
Bijan Robinson17%
Kenneth Walker15%
Def. POY
Will Anderson Jr.43%
Fred Warner12%
Dallas Turner8%
Off. ROY
Denzel Boston33%
Jeremiyah Love18%
Carnell Tate16%

Projected stat leaders

 
Pass yards
Matthew Stafford29%
Dak Prescott15%
Jared Goff15%
Pass TDs
Brock Purdy24%
Joe Burrow17%
Jared Goff14%
Rush yards
Kenneth Walker III38%
Bijan Robinson28%
Jahmyr Gibbs18%
Rush TDs
Jahmyr Gibbs41%
Derrick Henry23%
Josh Allen20%
Rec yards
Jaxon Smith-Njigba58%
CeeDee Lamb15%
Chris Olave15%
Rec TDs
Jaxon Smith-Njigba40%
Amon-Ra St. Brown18%
CeeDee Lamb13%
Sacks
Will Anderson Jr.53%
Dallas Turner44%
Byron Young24%
Interceptions
Deommodore Lenoir80%
Ernest Jones IV80%
Devin Lloyd80%
Projections from live Kalshi prediction markets (2026-10-17). Backtests on real nflverse + DraftKings data.
Edge is in DFS construction, not side-betting. For entertainment / informational use — lines move, verify before acting.