NFL 2026 · Edge HQ

Where our edge actually is — and where it isn't

Five seasons of backtests, the honest version: we can't beat the market on sides or totals, but our DFS construction is provably +EV — biggest in soft home leagues.
🏈 DFS HQ — playbook & stacks 📊 Research & backtests
Soft home league (proven)
+160% ROI
~22% win vs 8.3% baseline
2026 title favorite
San Francisco
25% · market-implied
Best projected record
SF 14-3
2026 Kalshi futures
MVP favorites
Allen / Purdy
32% each

✅ What we've proven (5-season backtests)

Tested on real data, the same way we killed our bad ideas. Tap any card for the numbers.
DFS construction edge
+160% ROI
Soft 12-man winner-take-all: our lineups win ~22% vs the 8.3% random baseline (85 real DK slates). Cash = don't stack; big GPP = leverage (top-1% 3.5% vs 0% naive).
See the backtest →
Markets are efficient on sides
49% ATS · 50% O/U
Over 1,359 games (2021-25), no model beats the closing line ATS or on totals. So we don't bet sides/totals — the edge isn't there.
See the backtest →
Warm model — no cold start
+17 pts in Sept
Carrying ratings across seasons fixes the cold-start tax: Weeks 1-4 win-rate 68.8% warm vs 51.6% cold. 2025 winners 63.6% straight-up.
See the backtest →

2026 market-implied projections

Power tiers

Ranked by market-implied projected wins · updated 2026-10-19.
S
Contender
SF 13.5BUF 13.2KC 13.1MIN 12.1NE 12.1BAL 11.7JAX 11.6
A
Playoff
DEN 11.4DET 11.0CHI 10.9CIN 10.9SEA 10.6
B
Bubble
GB 10.1LAR 9.9HOU 9.7PIT 9.6CAR 9.4
C
Longshot
DAL 8.9CLE 8.5IND 8.5LV 8.2NO 7.7ATL 7.6NYG 7.6
D
Rebuild
PHI 7.0NYJ 6.8WSH 6.7TB 6.5ARI 6.0LAC 4.7TEN 4.7MIA 3.0

Conference championship odds

Implied probability to reach the Super Bowl.

AFC

BUF20%
KC18%
BAL14%
JAX12%

NFC

SF25%
LAR13%
SEA12%
CHI11%

Projected playoff field

Top 4 = division winners · seeds 5–7 = wild cards.

AFC

1BUF 13.2East
2KC 13.1West
3BAL 11.7North
4JAX 11.6South
5NE 12.1WC
6DEN 11.4WC
7CIN 10.9WC

NFC

1SF 13.5West
2MIN 12.1North
3CAR 9.4South
4DAL 8.9East
5DET 11.0WC
6CHI 10.9WC
7SEA 10.6WC

Award races

 
MVP
Josh Allen32%
Brock Purdy25%
Patrick Mahomes8%
Off. POY
Jahmyr Gibbs30%
Kenneth Walker25%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba12%
Def. POY
Will Anderson Jr.38%
Fred Warner15%
Dallas Turner8%
Off. ROY
Carnell Tate23%
Germie Bernard18%
Denzel Boston16%

Projected stat leaders

 
Pass yards
Matthew Stafford21%
Bryce Young20%
Jared Goff19%
Pass TDs
Brock Purdy30%
Jared Goff20%
Joe Burrow14%
Rush yards
Kenneth Walker III53%
Bijan Robinson23%
James Cook III16%
Rush TDs
Derrick Henry29%
Jahmyr Gibbs23%
Bijan Robinson21%
Rec yards
Jaxon Smith-Njigba63%
CeeDee Lamb14%
Chris Olave13%
Rec TDs
Jaxon Smith-Njigba54%
Amon-Ra St. Brown18%
Ja'Marr Chase17%
Sacks
Dallas Turner41%
Will Anderson Jr.41%
Byron Young20%
Interceptions
Ernest Jones IV80%
Devin Lloyd80%
Deommodore Lenoir79%
Projections from live Kalshi prediction markets (2026-10-19). Backtests on real nflverse + DraftKings data.
Edge is in DFS construction, not side-betting. For entertainment / informational use — lines move, verify before acting.