NFL 2026 · Edge HQ

Where our edge actually is — and where it isn't

Five seasons of backtests, the honest version: we can't beat the market on sides or totals, but our DFS construction is provably +EV — biggest in soft home leagues.
🏈 DFS HQ — playbook & stacks 📊 Research & backtests
Soft home league (proven)
+160% ROI
~22% win vs 8.3% baseline
2026 title favorite
San Francisco
24% · market-implied
Best projected record
SF 14-3
2026 Kalshi futures
MVP favorites
Purdy / Allen
27% each

✅ What we've proven (5-season backtests)

Tested on real data, the same way we killed our bad ideas. Tap any card for the numbers.
DFS construction edge
+160% ROI
Soft 12-man winner-take-all: our lineups win ~22% vs the 8.3% random baseline (85 real DK slates). Cash = don't stack; big GPP = leverage (top-1% 3.5% vs 0% naive).
See the backtest →
Markets are efficient on sides
49% ATS · 50% O/U
Over 1,359 games (2021-25), no model beats the closing line ATS or on totals. So we don't bet sides/totals — the edge isn't there.
See the backtest →
Warm model — no cold start
+17 pts in Sept
Carrying ratings across seasons fixes the cold-start tax: Weeks 1-4 win-rate 68.8% warm vs 51.6% cold. 2025 winners 63.6% straight-up.
See the backtest →

2026 market-implied projections

Power tiers

Ranked by market-implied projected wins · updated 2026-10-18.
S
Contender
SF 13.6BUF 13.5KC 12.8BAL 12.5MIN 12.1NE 12.0JAX 11.9
A
Playoff
CHI 11.4DEN 11.3LAR 11.3CIN 11.1DET 11.0SEA 10.6
B
Bubble
HOU 9.8DAL 9.5GB 9.5CAR 9.2PIT 9.0
C
Longshot
IND 8.8ATL 8.7NYG 8.6LV 8.4CLE 7.9PHI 7.9NO 7.6
D
Rebuild
TB 7.1NYJ 6.8WSH 6.7LAC 6.1TEN 5.2ARI 4.9MIA 2.8

Conference championship odds

Implied probability to reach the Super Bowl.

AFC

BUF20%
KC19%
BAL16%
JAX10%

NFC

SF24%
LAR17%
SEA12%
CHI10%

Projected playoff field

Top 4 = division winners · seeds 5–7 = wild cards.

AFC

1BUF 13.5East
2KC 12.8West
3BAL 12.5North
4JAX 11.9South
5NE 12.0WC
6DEN 11.3WC
7CIN 11.1WC

NFC

1SF 13.6West
2MIN 12.1North
3DAL 9.5East
4CAR 9.2South
5CHI 11.4WC
6LAR 11.3WC
7DET 11.0WC

Award races

 
MVP
Brock Purdy27%
Josh Allen26%
Patrick Mahomes9%
Off. POY
Jahmyr Gibbs26%
Kenneth Walker20%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba13%
Def. POY
Will Anderson Jr.43%
Fred Warner12%
Dallas Turner9%
Off. ROY
Denzel Boston28%
Jeremiyah Love17%
Carnell Tate9%

Projected stat leaders

 
Pass yards
Matthew Stafford28%
C.J. Stroud20%
Jared Goff14%
Pass TDs
Brock Purdy38%
Jared Goff20%
Joe Burrow17%
Rush yards
Kenneth Walker III40%
Bijan Robinson29%
Jahmyr Gibbs18%
Rush TDs
Derrick Henry27%
Josh Allen23%
Jahmyr Gibbs22%
Rec yards
Jaxon Smith-Njigba32%
Chris Olave14%
CeeDee Lamb13%
Rec TDs
Jaxon Smith-Njigba44%
Ja'Marr Chase19%
Amon-Ra St. Brown18%
Sacks
Dallas Turner51%
Will Anderson Jr.48%
Byron Young23%
Interceptions
Ernest Jones IV80%
Devin Lloyd80%
Deommodore Lenoir79%
Projections from live Kalshi prediction markets (2026-10-18). Backtests on real nflverse + DraftKings data.
Edge is in DFS construction, not side-betting. For entertainment / informational use — lines move, verify before acting.