NFL 2026 · Edge HQ

Where our edge actually is — and where it isn't

Five seasons of backtests, the honest version: we can't beat the market on sides or totals, but our DFS construction is provably +EV — biggest in soft home leagues.
🏈 DFS HQ — playbook & stacks 📊 Research & backtests
Soft home league (proven)
+160% ROI
~22% win vs 8.3% baseline
2026 title favorite
San Francisco
22% · market-implied
Best projected record
SF 13-4
2026 Kalshi futures
MVP favorites
Purdy / Allen
27% each

✅ What we've proven (5-season backtests)

Tested on real data, the same way we killed our bad ideas. Tap any card for the numbers.
DFS construction edge
+160% ROI
Soft 12-man winner-take-all: our lineups win ~22% vs the 8.3% random baseline (85 real DK slates). Cash = don't stack; big GPP = leverage (top-1% 3.5% vs 0% naive).
See the backtest →
Markets are efficient on sides
49% ATS · 50% O/U
Over 1,359 games (2021-25), no model beats the closing line ATS or on totals. So we don't bet sides/totals — the edge isn't there.
See the backtest →
Warm model — no cold start
+17 pts in Sept
Carrying ratings across seasons fixes the cold-start tax: Weeks 1-4 win-rate 68.8% warm vs 51.6% cold. 2025 winners 63.6% straight-up.
See the backtest →

2026 market-implied projections

Power tiers

Ranked by market-implied projected wins · updated 2026-10-18.
S
Contender
SF 13.3JAX 13.2BUF 12.9KC 12.4BAL 12.3MIN 12.1
A
Playoff
DEN 11.2LAR 11.2NE 11.2CIN 11.0DET 10.9SEA 10.6
B
Bubble
CHI 10.3GB 9.5DAL 9.4PIT 9.1
C
Longshot
CAR 8.9HOU 8.9IND 8.6LV 8.5ATL 8.4CLE 7.9NYG 7.9PHI 7.6
D
Rebuild
NO 7.2NYJ 6.8TB 6.8WSH 6.7LAC 6.1ARI 4.9TEN 4.0MIA 3.0

Conference championship odds

Implied probability to reach the Super Bowl.

AFC

BUF20%
KC18%
BAL16%
JAX15%

NFC

SF22%
LAR17%
SEA13%
MIN9%

Projected playoff field

Top 4 = division winners · seeds 5–7 = wild cards.

AFC

1JAX 13.2South
2BUF 12.9East
3KC 12.4West
4BAL 12.3North
5NE 11.2WC
6DEN 11.2WC
7CIN 11.0WC

NFC

1SF 13.3West
2MIN 12.1North
3DAL 9.4East
4CAR 8.9South
5LAR 11.2WC
6DET 10.9WC
7SEA 10.6WC

Award races

 
MVP
Brock Purdy27%
Josh Allen26%
Patrick Mahomes9%
Off. POY
Jahmyr Gibbs27%
Bijan Robinson17%
Kenneth Walker17%
Def. POY
Will Anderson Jr.44%
Fred Warner12%
Dallas Turner9%
Off. ROY
Denzel Boston31%
Jeremiyah Love19%
Carnell Tate16%

Projected stat leaders

 
Pass yards
Matthew Stafford28%
Jared Goff14%
Dak Prescott13%
Pass TDs
Brock Purdy33%
Jared Goff19%
Joe Burrow18%
Rush yards
Kenneth Walker III40%
Bijan Robinson29%
Jahmyr Gibbs17%
Rush TDs
Derrick Henry38%
Jahmyr Gibbs29%
Josh Allen28%
Rec yards
Jaxon Smith-Njigba39%
Chris Olave16%
CeeDee Lamb14%
Rec TDs
Jaxon Smith-Njigba40%
Amon-Ra St. Brown18%
CeeDee Lamb13%
Sacks
Dallas Turner45%
Will Anderson Jr.40%
Byron Young24%
Interceptions
Deommodore Lenoir80%
Ernest Jones IV80%
Devin Lloyd80%
Projections from live Kalshi prediction markets (2026-10-18). Backtests on real nflverse + DraftKings data.
Edge is in DFS construction, not side-betting. For entertainment / informational use — lines move, verify before acting.